Politicians Avoid Tax Increases Around Elections

We use new annual data on gasoline taxes and corporate income from U.S. states to analyze whether politicians avoid tax increases in election years. These contain 3 useful attributes: (1) when state enact laws, (2) implement laws consumers firms, (3) the size of changes. Using a pre-analysis research plan that includes regressions rate changes enactment years time-to-gubernatorial year indicators, we find elections decrease probability enacting reduce implemented relative non-election We some evidence are most likely right after an election. effects stronger for than depend no other political, demographic, or macroeconomic conditions. Supplemental analysis supports political salience over legislative effort generating this difference electoral effects.